Lead With a Thesis
Your Clear Point of View Is Required!
The best and most influential CFOs don’t lead with numbers. They lead with a clear financial philosophy otherwise known as a thesis.
If you want to be a credible, trusted, and an influential financial leader, it’s time to move beyond presenting “what the numbers say” and take a strong stand for not only what the numbers mean (key insights) but also what actions to take next, why, and when.
Thesis = having a point of view. This is critical if you are going to engage the people you are trying to influence. Remember, it’s not just your CFO insights of the data, it’s your clear point of view of what to do next and why that separates great CFOs from the standard ol’ reliable CFOs. Don’t Be Dell Griffith!
I’m on record (here on Substack and various podcasts) with my own clear thesis that the CFO needs to be the co-author of the company’s strategy… the Architect of the company’s business model. Co-authors don’t speak in footnotes. They write in headlines. Architects don’t validate specifications. They design blueprints.
The Power of a Thesis
When you lead with a thesis, you’re making a clear statement like:
“Our current burn rate is acceptable because it’s aligned with our growth strategy and investable payback period of acquiring new customers.”
“Our current burn rate is unacceptable since it won’t give us enough runway to get to Series B.”
“We should double down on our social media campaigns because we’re seeing stronger LTV-to-CAC ratios than our more expensive tv and radio ad campaigns.”
“This product line needs to sunset because our opportunity cost of maintaining it exceeds its contribution margin. We need to use these old product $ for launching our new innovated product faster which carries much higher margins and significantly higher growth potential.”
Leading with a thesis signals to the CEO, Board, and your executive peers that you’ve done the work to form a clear point of view. It invites engagement, dialogue, and alignment. It also gives you the power to shape narrative, not just react to others narratives.
A great thesis expresses conviction of direction and path choosing… but don’t confuse that with being 100% certain or right.
You Don’t Have to Be 100% Right… Just 100% Engaged
I’ve also written historically that “Perfection is a Prison”. The best financial leaders should not aim to be “right” 100% of the time. In fact 80%+ right is “great” and in the long run will win you more money at the poker table of business by continuing to make 80% bets.
The world’s smartest experts in any subject live in disagreement with each other and are still thought of as leaders in their industries, universities, or fields of expertise.
Neither expert is ever completely 100% right. Their strong and differing points of views do help shape the world’s future - and that’s more important than being “right”.
Examples?
Tesla (Nikola) vs Edison: “DC” vs “AC” their “War of Currents” to use commercially.
Tesla (Elon) vs nearly everyone else: Cameras only vs Lidar to achieve Level 5 self-driving.
Keyboards vs Touch Screens for Mobile Phones.
Any economist vs any other economist.
We’ve had radically different points of view from Federal Reserve Chairs and their governors all trying to interpret the same fiscal conditions and what our economic future should look like.
Each expert always defends their own thesis backed by logic, evidence, and conviction. They both try to be “right” but do so mostly.
That’s your job as a C-level executive: to construct, communicate, and evolve your reasoning transparently.
Thesis (Your Strong POV) Builds Influence
A strong financial thesis helps you do three things:
Anchor (and re-anchor) debate. Without a clear point of view (thesis), the discussions rarely focuses on true debate and rather spirals around opinions. With a thesis, you center debate on logic and tradeoffs.
Focus direction. A great thesis focuses and translates complexity into more clear directions, something most everyone appreciates, especially CEOs, investors, and your team members. They all desperately want a clear point of view - especially from a CFO.
Build credibility. Consistently showing your reasoning, even when it’s not precisely right, earns trust and authority. Especially when you show you can build upon others ideas as you guide toward your thesis.
This is how you move from CFO Advisor to CFO Architect.
CFO’s Architect Practice: Design Your Thesis, Communicate It, Refine It
Your thesis is the basis of your decision operating system:
Design/Build it from data, insights, knowledge, wisdom using current operating situational analysis.
Communicate it to your leadership team; ask them to challenge and pressure-test your assumptions, scenarios, and alternative paths. Ask them to build upon your ideas and to refine your foundational thesis.
Refine it. Best ideas win. Course-correct and/or iterate your thesis as new data, insights, and knowledge emerges.
This “Design, Communicate, Refine” system is what separates strategic CFOs from analytical ones. Hint: it’s what also makes for great other C-Level execs whether in product, engineering, or sales/marketing.
Final Thoughts:
Stop trying to deliver the perfect financial model. Perfection is a Prison. The best CFOs lead with a clear thesis that is typically only 90% correct… and leave room for their peers (and themselves and their finance team) to engage and improve on the thesis.
The best CFOs are the ones who actively communicate their financial thesis clearly.
After lots of practice and “reps”, they are able to stand up in front of their peer exec team, the all hands company meeting, and the board room and say:
“Here’s my thesis. Here’s why I believe it. And here’s how and when we are going to course-correct if my thesis is wrong.”
That’s leadership. That’s influence. That’s how you earn your seat as the financial architect of the business.
If you want to learn how to do this in deep dive sessions… reach out to me.
I hope you had an awesome 2025 and are as excited as I am for 2026 to keep building and communicating for maximum influence.
Happy Holidays!
