Leadership POV in a Crisis: Why 70% Confidence Is Your Superpower
Part 2 of Crisis Leadership - Your 70% Point of View Is Critical
One of the most dangerous moves in a crisis isn’t the wrong decision, it’s NO DECISION at all.
When the unexpected hits, leaders often freeze or take a wait and see approach as they wait for things to clear up. Dangerous move. You will never have even 90% certainty or clarity in moments of chaos. Think of the deer in the headlights analogy or not taking action when an oncoming vehicle crosses your center line. Fight or Flight is part of our human DNA. Sitting still is not part of survival.
The best leaders have a bias for action. This also means not trying to make perfect decisions but rather having a bias for agile course correcting. They best leaders realize 70-80% is good enough and they actively make smart bets and adjust.
They “Think in Bets.” They take a probabilistic point of view and are willing to play on the proper part of the risk curve of the business.
So I’m here to “double down” on this concept and to “pair” it with one of my top historical posts.
70% confidence is your superpower when leading through a crisis.
Why Most Teams Freeze in a Crisis
During high-stakes moments such as market meltdowns, fundraising shocks, and operational breakdowns, teams instinctively slow down, defer decisions, or worst of all, freeze and do nothing.
Why? Because the fear of being wrong outweighs the need to move forward.
But leadership isn’t about waiting until you’re sure, it’s about acting when others won’t.
Great leaders embrace the 70% zone: Confident enough to act, humble enough to course correct. - Jim Cook, 2025
The 70% Decision Model: A 3 Step Playbook for Taking Action During Crisis Moments
Here’s how to operationalize this mindset during a crisis:
1. Build a Probabilistic Point of View
Trying to achieve 90-100% certainty before acting is a recipe for decision paralysis. You cannot afford to be paralyzed when it’s “Fight or Flight” time. Instead, get to a solid 70% viewpoint quickly by asking:
What do we know for sure?
What do we not know yet?
When are we likely to know more?
This isn’t just part of my communication framework. It’s also part of my decision-making framework.
2. Make Short-Term, Course-Correctable Moves
Once you’ve reached your 70% confidence point, ACT!
Make the next best decision, not the perfect one.
Prioritize decisions that are reversible or course-correctable as more information comes in. Think Jeff Bezos's 2-way doors I’ve written about in the prior posts.
Communicate clearly: “Here’s what we believe right now, and here’s what we’ll do next based on that.”
Example: The vehicle just crossed your center line? You must take action quickly. You have a teering wheel, brakes, or accelerator. You must pick one quickly and act while being prepared to counteract based on what transpires next.
3. Be Willing to Be in the 30% Wrong Zone
If you’re leading boldly, whether in a crisis or not, you will be wrong a probabilistic % of the time. In crisis, you need to be willing to be wrong a higher % of the time. Get comfortable with this critical mindset shift. My view? Being wrong 30% of the time in a crisis is a success because the odds are you will be 70% right. 30% is not failure is not failure during crisis. It’s part of taking necessary action, learning, and course correcting. 30% wrong is the price of agility with an ROI that yields minimizing the damage or even survival.
Still doubt my 70% view? Have you ever wished you were 70% right in the stock market over the long term or Vegas? Over the long term, if you were even 70% right, you would likely be a billionaire.
Caveat: If you are facing a 1-way door decision that can’t be course corrected AND the severity of being wrong is very high, then you want to move this 70% to a higher % to reduce the overall probability of entering that severe risk zone.
Risk = Probability x Severity: I’ve written about this equation in my previous Decision Making 3 Part Series
Two outcomes exist when your 70% short-term decision misses:
The decision logic was sound, but the outcome was unlucky. Now double down with better timing. Were the assumptions right?
The decision logic had bad assumptions, was incomplete, or was outright wrong. This is called learning. Now update your point of view, explain what changed and what you learned, then course correct to your next near-term future point of view.
Key Personal Takeaways: Here are few critical things I’ve learned over a half dozen crisis events I’ve personally and professionally had to lead through:
Over-communicating with transparency builds confidence and trust.
Being “right” is not required.
Separating the decisions from the outcomes is critical.
Being trusted and remembered for creating a safer path through the chaos is the stuff of legendary reputations.
Why This Matters: Your Point of View (POV) Is Your Leadership Anchor in the Storm
In the absence of certainty, people crave leadership.
Your confidence, clarity, and willingness to take action and decide becomes contagious. Your POV stabilizes the team and enables forward motion even in the most uncertain of times with danger lurking everywhere.
In times of crisis, being right is not the goal. Leading people to a safer place is the goal.
Crisis Decision-Making Checklist
Use a few of powerful questions framework during a crisis for your next high-stakes moment:
What do we know for sure (95%-100%)?
What do we believe at only a 70% probability?
What do we not yet know?
When (specific date or time frame) will we likely learn more?
What is the next best 70% confident short-term action we can take?
What is the next signal or metric we will monitor on this action to reassess or course correct this short term action?
Want an Example?
The Trump Tariffs and Stocks Markets around the world. Here is how my mind was working last week as this crisis unfolded.
What do I know for sure? I know the markets don’t like tariffs. That’s clear. Any increased tariff risks large stock market declines and country-wide economic declines.
What do I believe at 70% probability?
I believe there is a 70% or greater probability that Tariffs are here to stay under this administration.
I also believe there will be a final level of tariffs.
I also believe this final level of tariffs has a 70% probability of being lower than Trump’s first shock and awe %’s.
Finally, I’d also make a 70% bet that tariffs of more than about 15% for our major global trading partners (China, Europe, Canada, Mexico) will lead to higher inflation vs lower inflation, with higher final %s of tariffs being linked to higher consumer prices and inflation.
What do I not yet know? I don’t know the impacts of tariffs on consumer spending or whether it will lead to a recession. I don’t know how or when our global trading partners will negotiate with Trump. But, I will also put a 70% or higher probability that negotiation will happen at a lower final tariff rate.
What specific data or timeline will I likely know more? I believe we will all know more about negotiations across the globe within 30 days. I also believe the final negotiations with our global trading partners will take at least 6 months but likely not longer than 12 months (the time frame for knowing the final outcome).
What is the short-term action I can take? In my tax-free and commission-free 401K / IRA accounts, I must remind myself that it’s basically free to make short term trades and/or course correcting portfolio positioning on any given day. While I don’t day trade normally, in times of stock major crises like this, a “risk off” set of trades is the “next best action”.
In my personal example, acting = moving a higher % of my portfolio to cash while we wait for the “more data” (what we don’t know) to come in the timeframe of my personal assumptions.
I’m also reminding myself that I could be 30% wrong and to be prepared to course correct and buy back any of the same stocks I sold if this turns out to be a giant head fake.
The worst case? In markets like this, the risk of doing nothing and letting my investment winners lose 20% while I stay frozen in paralysis and hoping the market bounces back.
Bottom Line:
In times of crisis or unexpected shock to any system, you can NOT AFFORD to wait for the full picture… or even a 90% accurate picture. You MUST BUILD a 70% path to a better future. You must act and communicate with clarity and confidence, and you must stay agile and course-correct at the next detour or unexpected outcome.
This is how great leaders move forward while others stand still.
This is how confidence and trust are built.
This is how crises become turning points, not death spirals.
Want to go deeper?
Revisit Part 1: Crisis Leadership: More Best Of
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